blog.andrewsteele.co.uk

After taking the Who Should You Vote For? test and receiving a less than stunning wash-out demonstrating that I didn’t conclusively support any one of the parties, I have devised a version of my own.

The aforementioned quiz asks you to “strongly disagree” through “strongly agree” with a number of policies, and works out through this which party your views correlate most strongly with. Thus, the website recommends which party you should vote for.

In this version, I tell you who to vote for based on my non-partisan cynicism.

I’ve worked out my ideal scenario, and if just over half of the electorate are brainwashed by this web-page, it might just work; Tories get in, heavily opposed by the Lib Dems, followed by a national ‘yes’ vote in the referendum on the European Constitution not embarrassing or empowering anyone sufficiently to upset the balance come the next election. If you want to know why, here is my summary of the pros and cons of the various mainstream political parties.

I shall take as my example people in my constituency. They should vote Conservative. There are three reasons for this:

1. The Lib Dems aren’t going to get in. Here in the Wrekin, it’s a Labour marginal, with the chance that a bit of a swing, perhaps augmented by some pro-hunters given its rural nature, will turn it Tory. Given that there’s not much point voting at all, voting for a party that’s statistically guaranteed to lose is even more of a waste of time! Yes, all you Lib Dem supporters want proportional representation because it’s fairer, but, as Dan said*, “the system can change another day”; campaign for it, by all means, but currently, you’re stuck with first past the post, so vote accordingly! For those interested in rational choice theory, replace premise one with “In the election in which you are voting, it is extremely unlikely that your one vote for a minority party will cause a sudden rethink in the ethics of the electoral system and cause widespread change.” It’s not going to, is it?
2. The Lib Dem candidate here is an idiot. I know this because I went to Schools Question Time at AGS, where local MPs were grilled by pupils and parents in much the same way as happens on Question Time proper. The Lib Dem made gaffes aplenty in the manner of one totally incompetent and unsuited to parliamentary power. Fair enough, he’ll probably tow the party line in voting and get Liberal-supported laws passed, but the theory behind the British electoral system is that we decide on our politicians entirely on the basis of their local credentials. I’m not a vain idealist, so perhaps cut that down to 50%, but even so, elect someone capable!
3. The Tories aren’t likely to cruise merrily to an all-out victory. Another Tory seat erodes what will likely be a Labour majority, and this is surely good news for the Liberals.

The logic expressed here extends by analogy nationwide, and applies equally to Tory and Lib Dem supporters. People elsewhere should vote for whatever party is most likely to oust Labour, since they’re both ahead in the polls and the least desirable party anyway. The added bonus of voting Lib Dem (in places where they’re actually in with a hope) is that it propagates a three-party system, so we don’t end up like the Yanks. If your local candidate is a fool, reconsider this logic in light of that.

As I imply through “the system can change another day”, I believe that democracy in this country is imperfect. As I state directly, I actually don’t strongly agree with the full spectrum of policies from any party. However, the above is how rational choice theorist would vote: only in a minority of statistically ridiculous constituencies could it be clever to vote in any way other than that specified above.

So, vote Conservative! Or Lib Dem! Or both several times if you’re a fraudster (though those seem to be mainly Labour councillors in Birmingham)…

And, when this election’s over and I’ve had a bit more time to think, I’ll come up with a flawless voting system and set of policies, set up my own political party, and you can all vote for me instead.

* Sorry for the quote slightly out of context; but I think the sentiment is the same.

Sunday, April 17th, 2005 19:00 | permalink | trackback